Local Realtors Steve & Victoria Gore attended the CALIFORNIA REALTOR® EXPO 2007 held Oct. 9-11 at the Anaheim Convention Center. There were more than 12,000 attendees from across the state.
Featured speakers ranged in topics from Today’s Top Generational Trends, to Economics. Causes of our current market were discussed as well as forecasts made.
Richard Green, Professor of Economics and Real Estate at George Washington University said, “Long term I am bullish on California. It is one of the top world class markets with excellent fundamentals that I would compare to Paris, London, New York. . . . . For analyzing the short term we need to look at months’ supply of homes on the market. This is the key to telling if the market is near the bottom and heading to recovery.” Victoria Gore said, “We find these economist’s insights very enlightening in helping us to interpret our local data. We have been noticing great discrepancies between different areas within San Diego. The South Bay area has been running a 3 year supply of homes. In particular areas within North County, there have been approximately 1/3 of that. There are definitely micro markets within the San Diego area that are behaving vastly different.”
Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac who flew in from Washington D.C for the event presented insightful data regarding the regional market. He described how cyclical and predictable the California market has been. He stated that we saw similar rises in values and then depreciation starting in the late 70’s, then the late 80’s and then the early 2000’s. The only difference in this particular cycle is that this time around it has been the lower end that has been hardest hit instead of the upper end. He went on to sat that sub-prime loans were 15% of all loans taken out in California, but they now make up 70% of all loans being foreclosed. Steve Gore stated, “This explains so much regarding the various micro markets in our area. A much higher percentage of sub-prime loans were taken out in the South County area, thus the much higher downward pressure on pricing. The North County area isn’t feeling it to that degree.”
Jack Kyser, Economist in the Los Angeles area grouped areas of California according to predicted performance for 2008. “HOT: Bay Area, OKAY: Los Angeles, Sacramento and Ventura, PROBLEM: Orange County, Riverside, San Bernardino and San Diego with a “but” for San Diego.” He felt San Diego will feel the slow down through mid-2008 and then start coming out—much sooner than the other areas. He based this analysis on the acronym “FIFO” meaning “First in, First out”. Because San Diego was the first to appreciate, then the first to depreciate, they will also be the first one to come out.
For any questions about information given at the 2007 California Realtor Expo or how it may apply to your particular neighborhood, call Steve or Victoria Gore directly at 858-229-9939. Or stop by their office located in the Albertson’s Center off the 56 at Camino Del Sur.